IPO GMP Accuracy Tracker
Is the grey market premium a good guide to the listing price? We compare the last GMP before listing with the price each IPO actually opened at on the exchange, for 160 IPOs since Jan 2026.
IPOs compared160
Typical miss (median)6.9 pts
Within ±5 points43%
Within ±10 points65%
Direction right78%
GMP too high51% of IPOs
Average bias+0.1 pts
Mainboard vs SME miss4.9 vs 9.5 pts
What the numbers say
- Mainboard GMPs have been fairly reliable. The median mainboard listing landed 4.9 points from the GMP estimate, 77% were within 10 points and the direction was right 87% of the time.
- SME GMPs are a weaker guide. The median SME miss was 9.5 points and only 55% were within 10 points.
- Listings came in slightly above the GMP on average (+0.1 pts), and the GMP was too optimistic for 51% of IPOs, so it has not been consistently biased either way.
- A weak GMP has usually meant a weak listing. IPOs with a zero or negative GMP opened -11.0% on average.
- Very high GMPs were mostly confirmed. When the GMP pointed to more than 50%, the average listing gain was +75.5%.
A "point" is one percentage point of the issue price. If the GMP pointed to a 20% gain and the IPO listed 26% higher, the miss is +6 points.
GMP estimate vs actual listing gain
Average for each GMP level| GMP pointed to | IPOs | GMP estimate vs actual | Listed at premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| GMP zero or negative | 14 |
GMP
-5.1%
Actual
-11.0%
|
0% |
| GMP up to 10% | 63 |
GMP
+3.6%
Actual
+1.8%
|
51% |
| GMP 10% to 25% | 37 |
GMP
+16.8%
Actual
+18.0%
|
87% |
| GMP 25% to 50% | 27 |
GMP
+37.5%
Actual
+43.2%
|
100% |
| GMP above 50% | 19 |
GMP
+75.0%
Actual
+75.5%
|
100% |
Mainboard vs SME
| Board | IPOs | Typical miss | Within 10 pts | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainboard | 74 | 4.9 pts | 77% | 87% |
| SME | 86 | 9.5 pts | 55% | 70% |
Month by month
| Listing month | IPOs | Typical miss | Within 10 pts | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 10 | 14.5 pts | 40% | 70% |
| Sep 2026 | 48 | 8.3 pts | 58% | 71% |
| Aug 2026 | 31 | 5.2 pts | 77% | 84% |
| Jul 2026 | 22 | 4.5 pts | 77% | 82% |
| Jun 2026 | 12 | 11.1 pts | 50% | 75% |
| May 2026 | 9 | 7.7 pts | 56% | 89% |
| Apr 2026 | 4 | 6.7 pts | 75% | 100% |
| Mar 2026 | 8 | 4.0 pts | 75% | 75% |
| Feb 2026 | 7 | 2.3 pts | 100% | 86% |
| Jan 2026 | 9 | 10.8 pts | 44% | 67% |
Latest listings: GMP vs actual
| IPO | Issue price | Last GMP | GMP estimate | Listed at | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sai Urja IndoSME · listed 5 Oct 2026 | ₹113 | ₹10 | ₹123 +8.9% | ₹133.8 +18.4% | +9.6 pts |
| Bench Mark Infotech ServicesSME · listed 5 Oct 2026 | ₹110 | ₹25 | ₹135 +22.7% | ₹110 0.0% | -22.7 pts |
| AcevectorMainboard · listed 5 Oct 2026 | ₹32 | ₹0.6 | ₹32.6 +1.9% | ₹28.32 -11.5% | -13.4 pts |
| Orient Cables IndiaMainboard · listed 5 Oct 2026 | ₹272 | ₹111 | ₹383 +40.8% | ₹450 +65.4% | +24.6 pts |
| German Green Steel PowerMainboard · listed 5 Oct 2026 | ₹139 | ₹10.5 | ₹149.5 +7.6% | ₹142 +2.2% | -5.4 pts |
| Runwal EnterprisesMainboard · listed 5 Oct 2026 | ₹305 | -₹5 | ₹300 -1.6% | ₹305 0.0% | +1.6 pts |
| Dudani RetailSME · listed 5 Oct 2026 | ₹29 | ₹0.5 | ₹29.5 +1.7% | ₹25 -13.8% | -15.5 pts |
| A-One Steels IndiaMainboard · listed 1 Oct 2026 | ₹405 | ₹35 | ₹440 +8.6% | ₹455 +12.4% | +3.7 pts |
| MoneyviewMainboard · listed 1 Oct 2026 | ₹34 | ₹11.7 | ₹45.7 +34.4% | ₹55 +61.8% | +27.4 pts |
| Roopa ScreenSME · listed 1 Oct 2026 | ₹64 | ₹38 | ₹102 +59.4% | ₹121.6 +90.0% | +30.6 pts |
| ArMee InfotechMainboard · listed 30 Sep 2026 | ₹375 | ₹6 | ₹381 +1.6% | ₹375 0.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Adroit Industries IndiaMainboard · listed 30 Sep 2026 | ₹134 | ₹57 | ₹191 +42.5% | ₹235 +75.4% | +32.8 pts |
| Elevate CampusesMainboard · listed 30 Sep 2026 | ₹362 | ₹6 | ₹368 +1.7% | ₹355.1 -1.9% | -3.6 pts |
| Swastika InfraMainboard · listed 30 Sep 2026 | ₹185 | ₹8 | ₹193 +4.3% | ₹200 +8.1% | +3.8 pts |
| Robokidz EduventuresSME · listed 28 Sep 2026 | ₹106 | ₹80 | ₹186 +75.5% | ₹201.4 +90.0% | +14.5 pts |
| FX MultitechSME · listed 28 Sep 2026 | ₹116 | ₹6.5 | ₹122.5 +5.6% | ₹123.05 +6.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Kheria AutocompSME · listed 24 Sep 2026 | ₹101 | ₹3 | ₹104 +3.0% | ₹104.9 +3.9% | +0.9 pts |
| SpectraA Technology SolutionsSME · listed 24 Sep 2026 | ₹118 | ₹77 | ₹195 +65.3% | ₹224.2 +90.0% | +24.8 pts |
| Hero MotorsMainboard · listed 23 Sep 2026 | ₹84 | -₹3 | ₹81 -3.6% | ₹82 -2.4% | +1.2 pts |
| SS RetailMainboard · listed 23 Sep 2026 | ₹424 | ₹160 | ₹584 +37.7% | ₹624 +47.2% | +9.4 pts |
| Jindal Supreme IndiaMainboard · listed 23 Sep 2026 | ₹93 | ₹29 | ₹122 +31.2% | ₹120 +29.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Vama WovenfabSME · listed 22 Sep 2026 | ₹341 | ₹3 | ₹344 +0.9% | ₹341 0.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Shakti PolytarpSME · listed 22 Sep 2026 | ₹59 | ₹10 | ₹69 +17.0% | ₹58.9 -0.2% | -17.1 pts |
| Manika PlastechMainboard · listed 21 Sep 2026 | ₹43 | ₹1 | ₹44 +2.3% | ₹43 0.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Veegaland DevelopersMainboard · listed 18 Sep 2026 | ₹140 | ₹8 | ₹148 +5.7% | ₹154 +10.0% | +4.3 pts |
| Panchatv BharatSME · listed 18 Sep 2026 | ₹140 | ₹3 | ₹143 +2.1% | ₹128.95 -7.9% | -10.0 pts |
| Raksan TransformersSME · listed 18 Sep 2026 | ₹273 | ₹12 | ₹285 +4.4% | ₹273 0.0% | -4.4 pts |
| Maharaja and Speedex IndiaSME · listed 18 Sep 2026 | ₹186 | ₹28 | ₹214 +15.1% | ₹250 +34.4% | +19.4 pts |
| Karamtara EngineeringMainboard · listed 17 Sep 2026 | ₹254 | ₹46 | ₹300 +18.1% | ₹320 +26.0% | +7.9 pts |
| RentomojoMainboard · listed 17 Sep 2026 | ₹404 | ₹87 | ₹491 +21.5% | ₹482.45 +19.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Manipal Payment and Identity SolutionsMainboard · listed 17 Sep 2026 | ₹339 | -₹6 | ₹333 -1.8% | ₹330 -2.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Steamhouse IndiaMainboard · listed 17 Sep 2026 | ₹81 | ₹13.5 | ₹94.5 +16.7% | ₹94.5 +16.7% | 0.0 pts |
| Vinod TexworldSME · listed 17 Sep 2026 | ₹94 | ₹1 | ₹95 +1.1% | ₹94 0.0% | -1.1 pts |
| LCC ProjectsMainboard · listed 17 Sep 2026 | ₹146 | ₹36 | ₹182 +24.7% | ₹189 +29.5% | +4.8 pts |
| Kanohar ElectricalsMainboard · listed 16 Sep 2026 | ₹632 | ₹182 | ₹814 +28.8% | ₹685.5 +8.5% | -20.3 pts |
| Prasol ChemicalsMainboard · listed 16 Sep 2026 | ₹676 | -₹13 | ₹663 -1.9% | ₹610 -9.8% | -7.8 pts |
| Glass Wall SystemsMainboard · listed 16 Sep 2026 | ₹182 | ₹39 | ₹221 +21.4% | ₹194 +6.6% | -14.8 pts |
| Pranav ConstructionsMainboard · listed 15 Sep 2026 | ₹124 | ₹53 | ₹177 +42.7% | ₹165 +33.1% | -9.7 pts |
| Qualiance InternationalSME · listed 11 Sep 2026 | ₹127 | ₹81 | ₹208 +63.8% | ₹224.9 +77.1% | +13.3 pts |
| Rays of BeliefMainboard · listed 8 Sep 2026 | ₹239 | ₹15 | ₹254 +6.3% | ₹239 0.0% | -6.3 pts |
Biggest misses
| IPO | Issue price | Last GMP | GMP estimate | Listed at | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teja Engineering IndustriesSME · listed 7 Jul 2026 | ₹220 | ₹36 | ₹256 +16.4% | ₹418 +90.0% | +73.6 pts |
| MerritronixSME · listed 8 Jun 2026 | ₹149 | ₹68 | ₹217 +45.6% | ₹283.1 +90.0% | +44.4 pts |
| Vegorama Punjabi AngithiSME · listed 27 May 2026 | ₹77 | ₹9 | ₹86 +11.7% | ₹118.1 +53.4% | +41.7 pts |
| Credent Connect N CareSME · listed 20 Aug 2026 | ₹189 | ₹92 | ₹281 +48.7% | ₹359.1 +90.0% | +41.3 pts |
| Skyways Air ServicesMainboard · listed 1 Sep 2026 | ₹138 | ₹33 | ₹171 +23.9% | ₹124 -10.1% | -34.1 pts |
| Adroit Industries IndiaMainboard · listed 30 Sep 2026 | ₹134 | ₹57 | ₹191 +42.5% | ₹235 +75.4% | +32.8 pts |
| Hy-Tech EngineersMainboard · listed 1 Sep 2026 | ₹53 | ₹39 | ₹92 +73.6% | ₹75 +41.5% | -32.1 pts |
| Roopa ScreenSME · listed 1 Oct 2026 | ₹64 | ₹38 | ₹102 +59.4% | ₹121.6 +90.0% | +30.6 pts |
| Millworks TechnologiesSME · listed 21 Jul 2026 | ₹331 | ₹395 | ₹726 +119.3% | ₹628.9 +90.0% | -29.3 pts |
| Gabion TechnologiesSME · listed 13 Jan 2026 | ₹81 | ₹31 | ₹112 +38.3% | ₹89 +9.9% | -28.4 pts |
How we measure. For each IPO we take the last daily GMP recorded before listing day (for older IPOs, the final GMP reported) and add it to the upper price band to get the estimated listing price. The actual listing price is the first trade on listing day on NSE, or BSE for issues listed only there, from the exchanges' price files. IPOs whose recorded issue price looks wrong are left out. SME listings are capped at 90% above the issue price on the first day, so very high SME GMPs can't be fully reached. GMP is unofficial and past accuracy doesn't guarantee future accuracy. See the live IPO GMP and the IPO report card.
IPO GMP accuracy: FAQs
How accurate is IPO GMP?
Across 160 IPOs that listed since Jan 2026, the listing gain landed a median 6.9 percentage points away from what the last GMP pointed to. 65% of listings were within 10 points of the GMP estimate, and the GMP got the direction (premium or discount) right 78% of the time.
Is GMP more accurate for mainboard or SME IPOs?
Mainboard. For mainboard IPOs the median miss was 4.9 points with 77% within 10 points; for SME IPOs it was 9.5 points with 55% within 10 points. SME grey markets are thinner, so their quotes move more and say less.
Does a high GMP guarantee listing gains?
No, but it has been a strong signal. IPOs whose GMP pointed to a gain above 50% listed +75.5% higher on average, and 100% of them listed at a premium. Individual listings still varied widely, and SME listings are capped at 90% above the issue price on the first day.
What happens when GMP is zero or negative?
In our data, IPOs with a zero or negative GMP before listing opened -11.0% on average against the issue price, and 0% listed at a premium. A weak GMP has usually meant a weak listing.
Where do the listing prices come from?
The listing price is the first trade on listing day from NSE, or BSE for issues listed only there, taken from the exchanges' official price files. The GMP is the last daily grey market premium recorded on IPO Darbaar before listing day.